Root Causes of Saudi Arabia’s Aggressive Policies

Mehran Kamrava
Professor of Political Science, Georgetown University

The root cause of change in Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy should be sought in 2011 and subsequent to the Arab Spring developments.

Since that year, the foreign policy of this country has been always choppy and lacking any clear coherence. Such lack of coherence has been a result of regional developments, on the one hand, while on the other hand, being a function of domestic changes in the country. Due to sickness and inability of former Saudi monarch, King Abdullah, to manage the country’s affairs, various factions were formed within Saudi Arabia’s government structure, each of which pursued different goals in the country’s foreign policy.

Finally, a group rose to power in Saudi Arabia, which believed that the United States is not adequately supporting the country and Riyadh must take steps on its own to meet its interests and national security. Saudis’ concerns in this regard started after the fall of the former Egyptian president, Hosni Mubarak, and subsequent closeness between the United States and the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. The foreign policy adopted by the US President Barack Obama in the past years has been marked with two new aspects: the first aspect is more attention to East Asia, which is known as Asia pivot, with the second aspect being Washington’s willingness to manage various issues from behind the scenes, a policy known as “leading from behind.” This second aspect of the US foreign policy caused serious concerns among Saudi officials, because according to this new policy, Americans had no more plan to engage in Middle East developments in a direct way, which could mean lack of the US engagement in possible future crises in the region in favor of Saudi Arabia.

Conditions became even more alarming for Saudi Arabia when a third aspect was added to Obama’s foreign policy and it was direct negotiations with Iran. Such conditions were combined with lack of experience on the part of the new Saudi rulers, who were bent on meeting their interests in the region at any price, and finally led to the adoption of an aggressive foreign policy approach by Riyadh.

Following developments in past days, Sudan, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates have followed suit with Saudi Arabia and either severed or downgraded their relations with Iran. Every one of these countries has its own special dynamism. Sudan is a poor and isolated country whose president is wanted by the International Criminal Court. The country, therefore, needs to find international allies and when a rich country like Saudi Arabia tries to lure Sudan, it definitely succeeds.

Bahrain has been grappling with a national uprising in recent years and, in an effort to justify its legitimacy, has been trying to change conditions in the direction of sectarian strife while blaming Iran for its internal crisis. Therefore, this country has also sided with Saudi Arabia. At the same time, despite profound differences that it has with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates has attuned its foreign policy with Riyadh due to tensions the exist between Abu Dhabi and Tehran over three Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf. Other littoral Arab states of the Persian Gulf will possibly adopt independent positions vis–à–vis recent regional developments and Iran.

Key Words: Saudi Arabia, Aggressive Policies, Root Causes, Arab Spring, Iran, US, Asia Pivot, Leading from Behind, Obama’s Foreign Policy, Direct Negotiations, Sudan, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Kamrava

Source: Hamshahri Online